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How to Predict Trends by Finding Limits
In the first two articles about predicting the future, we looked at types of curves and leading indicators. These tools are useful ways to predict trends, but tends have limits, too. Today, we will look at the types of things that disrupt predictions made with the first two tools – or any other tool. In […]
Continue readingPredicting with leading indicators
We can improve our predictions in strategic planning by predicting with leading indicators. You may have hear of the Composite Leading Indicators, a statistic used by the Federal Reserve to predict recessions. This tool is a good way to anticipate changes in a dynamic system. Choosing important leading indicators for your business may be simpler […]
Continue readingHow to make better predictions 1 – the shape of the curve
One of the things we cannot avoid in strategic thinking is making predictions. While predictions, being assumptions, inevitably carry the risk of error, there are things we can do to make better predictions. When you can match an understanding of future trends with a clear vision, your plans are much more likely to be successful. […]
Continue readingThe Eleventh Critical Skill in Strategic Thinking is Patience
The eleventh critical skill in strategic thinking is patience – the ability to wait. This is not just waiting to act – it is about waiting to judge and decide an issue. This critical skill is important for three key reasons. 1. Great strategic thinking requires adequate thought and information. Both information and thought require […]
Continue readingOpenness – The Tenth Critical Skill for Strategic Thinking
The tenth critical skill in strategic thinking is the ability to suspend judgment. Better strategic thinkers should consider ideas and explore possibilities before they impose any evaluation. This does not mean that a strategist never applies judgement. It means that they should apply analysis without judgment before they critique ideas. Openness is a critical skill […]
Continue readingThe Ninth Critical Skill in Strategic Thinking is Honesty
The ninth critical skill in strategic thinking is honesty. Great strategic thinkers can balance their tremendous creativity with a sense of realism and honesty about what is achievable in the longer term. This ability to balance is not an obstacle to their accomplishments. Many strategic thinkers refer to themselves as realistic optimists. How does this […]
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