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Where are you on the Technology Curve?
New technologies follow a fairly well-understood “curve”. We can think of these curves in terms of profitability, but this is oversimplifying things. Much of the thinking about technology curves in the business world comes from the work of Nikolai Kondratiev in the 1920s. The Kondratiev Curve In his work, Kondratiev suggested that there are long-term […]Continue reading
How to Predict Trends by Finding Limits
In the first two articles about predicting the future, we looked at types of curves and leading indicators. These tools are useful ways to predict trends, but tends have limits, too. Today, we will look at the types of things that disrupt predictions made with the first two tools – or any other tool. In […]Continue reading