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What people get wrong in strategic planning – part 3: data sources and estimates
In my last two posts, I discussed two of the three things that people get wrong in strategic planning: information and buy-in. Today, I’ll be discussing the third thing: sources and estimates. Data Sources As I mentioned in a previous post, people tend to want to find definitive sources of data for their strategic planning. […]
Continue readingWhere are you on the Technology Curve?
New technologies follow a fairly well-understood “curve”. We can think of these curves in terms of profitability, but this is oversimplifying things. Much of the thinking about technology curves in the business world comes from the work of Nikolai Kondratiev in the 1920s. The Kondratiev Curve In his work, Kondratiev suggested that there are long-term […]
Continue readingHow to Predict Trends by Finding Limits
In the first two articles about predicting the future, we looked at types of curves and leading indicators. These tools are useful ways to predict trends, but tends have limits, too. Today, we will look at the types of things that disrupt predictions made with the first two tools – or any other tool. In […]
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